Tottenham fans are resigned to Harry Kane’s departure this summer. While some are keen to put an end to the saga once and for all, Spurs losing their star striker would have a significant impact on Ange Postecoglou’s first season in charge. Only Erling Haaland (36) scored more goals than Kane (30) in the Premier League last term. There is an argument to be made that the latter’s goal haul in this Spurs side is more impressive than the Manchester City striker’s maiden campaign.
The question now is where next for Kane. Bayern Munich are the favourites to secure his services, even after a Bild reporter’s bizarre shirt stunt during a recent Tottenham press conference. The aim now is for both Bayern and Spurs to agree a suitable fee before next month’s deadline, in order for Postecoglou to prepare for life after Kane. It wouldn’t be easy – the homegrown striker has scored at least 17 league goals in each of his past nine seasons.
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Given his impressive goal record through thick and thin with Spurs, many are wondering just how many goals Kane could score in the Bundesliga, where Bayern are dominant. Despite Robert Lewandowski’s move to Barcelona last summer, only Manchester City (94) scored more goals than Bayern (92) in Europe’s top five leagues last season. That should negate the need for a goal machine to lead their charge then, right? Well, no.
Serge Gnabry was Bayern’s top scorer in the Bundesliga last season with 14 league goals, with Julian Nagelsmann and then Thomas Tuchel making do with Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting and Thomas Müller at centre-forward, with the duo both the wrong side of 30.
Sadio Mané’s struggles further heightened the need to bring in a new striker this summer, with Bayern prepared to sell the former Liverpool player after one season to help fund a move for Kane. As an overdue replacement for Lewandowski, would Kane be similarly prolific in the German top flight? Statistics can give an indication, at least.
View image in fullscreenHarry Kane scores a penalty for Tottenham against Lion City Sailors in Singapore on 26 July but how much longer will he be at the club? Photograph: Suhaimi Abdullah/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Excluding penalties, Kane mustered 124 shots on goals in the Premier League last season. From those 124 shots, he scored 25 league goals, returning a non-penalty conversion rate of 20.2%. It bears repeating: this was in a rudderless Spurs side, stuck playing Antonio Conte’s negative, reactive brand of football. Spurs averaged just 10.2 key passes per game, ranking seventh in the Premier League.
Over a 38-game season, that equates to 386 chances created by Spurs in England’s top tier last term. In theory, then, 32.1% of the goalscoring opportunities Spurs created in the Premier League last season ended in Kane having a shot. In reality, there were a number of occasions where Kane managed an open-play shot without a teammate creating for the striker. Still, these basic numbers give us a clue as to how Kane would fare in Germany.
Even in a largely disappointing season, Bayern made more key passes per game (14.4) than any other team in Europe’s top five leagues – a total of 489 over a 34-game Bundesliga campaign. If Kane had been on the end of 32.1% of Bayern’s goalscoring chances last term, he’d have had 157 shots on goal. If he had scored from 20.2% of these shots, Kane would have scored 32 non-penalty goals.
Of course, it’s likely Kane would have been on penalty duty, too. Bayern didn’t have a consistent penalty taker last term, with Joshua Kimmich, Mané and Gnabry each netting one apiece. Kane probably would have assumed spot-kick duty for the Bavarian powerhouse, and might have delivered greater consistency.
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Manchester United could revive interest in Harry Kane after Spurs decisionRead more
Bayern collectively scored just three of five penalties in the Bundesliga last season, a conversion rate of 60%. By comparison, Kane returned a penalty conversion rate of 83.3% – five out of six – in the Premier League last season. Assuming he would have scored four out of five for Bayern, that takes him to 36 goals.
Kane certainly looks like the perfect Lewandowski replacement and as things stand, Bayern appear to have a free run at him. Paris Saint-Germain have been linked but the striker is thought to prefer a move to Munich over Paris. Interest from Manchester United has cooled in recent weeks, with Erik ten Hag’s side instead turning their interest to Atalanta’s Rasmus Højlund.
Statistics show why United have shown an interest in Kane this summer. Ten Hag’s team ended the Premier League season with a league-high 479 key passes – 12.6 per game – to their name. Using the same calculation as above, Kane would have managed 154 shots, and scored 31 non-penalty top-flight goals. Unlike Bayern, United have a reliable penalty taker in their new captain, Bruno Fernandes.
Bayern are Kane’s most likely destination this summer; having already signed Kim Min-Jae and Raphaël Guerreiro, they clearly mean business as they look to re-establish themselves as Europe’s best under Tuchel. Kane would complete their attack, and could prove the perfect frontman to deliver domestic and continental success to the Allianz Arena.
